UK Economy Set For Oil Price Fall Dividend

Written By Unknown on Senin, 19 Januari 2015 | 18.54

The UK economy is set to grow more than expected this year with falling oil prices boosting consumer spending, according to an influential forecaster.

The EY ITEM Club predicts that GDP will grow by 2.9% in 2015, up 0.5% on its previous estimate in October.

The forecast is also more optimistic than the 2.4% predicted in Chancellor's George Osborne's Autumn Statement in December.

The plunge in oil costs - with Brent crude losing more than 50% of its value since June last year - has seen unleaded petrol costs hit a five-year low, giving a shot in the arm to household budgets.

The ITEM Club report also predicts inflation will average around zero in 2015 - turning negative in the early months of the year.

The low inflation rate will also help hold off a decision by the Bank of England on increasing interest rates.

The report predicts that rates will not rise from their current record low of 0.5% until the spring of 2016, followed by a gradual rise of 0.25% every three months.

Peter Spencer, EY ITEM Club's chief economic adviser, said: "Not every economy will be a winner from oil prices collapsing, but the UK certainly is.

"We have described the previous weakness of commodity prices as a silver lining in the storm clouds gathering over the world economy.

"But with oil prices now down over 50% since last June, this silver lining has turned to gold.

"While it is not a game changer in terms of growth prospects, falling oil prices come just as the recovery was losing momentum and will move the game up to a higher level for a year or two."

Alongside the benefit of low inflation, the ITEM Club is expecting wage growth of 3.5% in 2015, resulting in a rise in real disposable incomes of 3.7%.

As a result, real household consumption is set to increase by 2.9% this year and 2.6% in 2016.

Liberal Democrat Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander said: "Falling oil prices act like a giant tax cut to the economy and will further boost our already established recovery.

"Consumers felt the pain when oil prices were high. It's only fair that they, and the economy, should feel the full benefit when they are falling."

Meanwhile, the Confederation of British Industry said Britain's financial sector reported the biggest upsurge in business in nearly 20 years in the last three months of 2014.

Rain Newton-Smith, the CBI's director of economics, said: "The upswing in growth among financial services firms continues on a solid footing, with overall optimism, business volumes and profits up."


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