Farage Parks Tanks On All Party Lawns

By Michael Thrasher, Sky's Election Analyst

Barring an unexpected series of events the voters of Clacton will re-elect Douglas Carswell as a UKIP rather than Conservative MP.

Labour will retain Heywood and Middleton but UKIP will finish second in a seat where it was fifth in 2010.  By any account these will represent spectacular performances.

Constituency polling undertaken in Clacton by Survation just after Carswell's defection and more recently by Lord Ashcroft suggest that UKIP will win handsomely, thereby overturning a Conservative majority of more than 12,000 votes. 

But the Conservatives face a double whammy - Clacton's voters look set to repeat the act at the General Election in May.

The election of its first MP to the House of Commons (Bob Spink defected to UKIP although was elected a Conservative) will be a dramatic moment in UKIP's short history and will confirm the party's progress over the past two years.

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1. Gallery: Heywood By-Election Candidates

   John Bickley, UKIP. Father of two who joined UKIP three years ago. He lived for a short while in Heywood and Middleton and began his career as a laboratory technician before joining EMI Records in the North West and then moving to London. He now runs his own software company. His interests aside from politics include walking.

2. Iain Gartside, Conservative. Married 39-year-old grew up in Manchester and lives in Bury. He works in financial services helping small businesses to succeed, and is the leader of the Conservative group on Bury Council. He is a Manchester City fan who plays cricket in his spare time.

3. Abi Jackson, Green Party. Abi was brought up in Middleton and has recently completed a Master's Degree in Psychology at Huddersfield University. She continues to live in the constituency.

4. Liz McInnes, Labour. A councillor in Rossendale, a few miles outside the constituency, where she lives with her partner Steve and son Sam. She works as a healthcare scientist in the NHS and is a Unite union rep. She beat former BBC presenter Miriam O'Reilly to become candidate.

5. Anthony Smith, Liberal Democrat. Has lived in Heywood and Middleton for most of his life. He is a father of four and local businessman who lives in Rochdale. He left school at 16, worked on a shop floor, faced redundancy, reskilled and ran his own business. When he was younger he played in a number of brass bands.

In that time it has ceased to be a one-trick pony, specifically able to tap into voters' distrust of Europeanisation, and has taken a number of important steps. 

First, it edged alongside, then overtook the Liberal Democrats in national surveys of voters. The latest polling sees the coalition Liberal Democrats in single figures whilst it watches UKIP march ahead after it successfully stole its brand as the party of choice for protest voters.

Second, UKIP in 2013 and again this May did the unthinkable - contest and win local council seats. This is a far cry from the European issue and reveals a broadening of the UKIP brand. 

Labour permitted rapid inward migration of workers during the economic boom, the Conservatives pledged to reduce the numbers and have failed to do so. More disillusioned voters for UKIP to tap into, therefore. 

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1. Gallery: Clacton By-Election Candidates

   Douglas Carswell, UKIP. Was a Conservative until August when he crossed to Nigel Farage's party. A former businessman, fund manager and Conservative MP. First elected to Clacton in 2005 and returned with a majority of 12,000 in 2010. The 43-year-old first stood against Tony Blair in Sedgefield in 2001.

2. Andy Graham, Liberal Democrat. The 59-year-old actor and writer founded the Snap Theatre Company and is a former mayor of Bishop's Stortford. He has also set up the ai ai Ltd charity working in the developing world. He brought the stage version of Sense and Sensibility to Clacton's West Cliff Theatre 10 years ago.

3. Howling 'Laud' Hope, Official Monster Raving Loony Party. The 72-year-old leader of the Official Monster Raving Loony Party since the death of Screaming 'Lord' Sutch in 1999. He was actually jointly elected with his pet cat, Catmando, but Catmando died in 2002.

4. Charlotte Rose, independent. A 34-year-old former dominatrix now high-class escort and Sex Worker of The Year, who has slept with more than 1,000 men and charges £180 an hour for her services. She is university educated and says her "main policy is about sexual freedom". Her other focus is improving sex education in schools.

5. Dr Bruce Sizer, independent. The consultant oncologist only entered the contest to get publicity for cancer services in the area and himself admitted he has "no political ambitions". Dr Sizer's campaign headquarters is a beach hut in Walton-on-the-Naze.

6. Chris Southall, Green Party. Recently took part in a Stand Up To UKIP protest. He is a former potter, computer engineer and drummer who lives in an eco house which is open to the public.

7. Giles Watling, Conservatives. Best known as Oswald the vicar who married Avaline in the sitcom Bread back in the 1980s. The 61-year-old, an Essex Junior Champion Archer, is a Conservative councillor on Tendring District Council.

8. Tim Young, Labour. A leading north Essex councillor, he was born and brought up in Clacton. He is currently leader of the Labour group on Colchester Council and is portfolio holder for planning, community safety and culture. He has a dangerous driving conviction from 2001, when he hit a police officer with his car.

UKIP made rapid progress in the shire county elections in 2013 and audaciously picked off seats in some Labour-dominated areas in 2014.

Third, by broadening its appeal UKIP has built itself a rather effective party machine. Its national organisation boasts people who know their way around campaigning. 

Locally, it has thousands of new recruits, many of whom have been standing as local election candidates. These people have run campaigns that are every bit as effective as those run by the three established parties.

This level of organisation has been viewed at both parliamentary and local council by-elections. In November 2012 the party finished second in the parliamentary seats of Middlesbrough and Rotherham. Months later it chased the Liberal Democrats hard in Eastleigh and since then has finished second in every other by-election held.

Video: Clacton: The Word On The Street

The story is similar in council by-elections. Regularly, its candidates win a fifth or more of the votes having never contested before.  Having read and digested the Liberal Democrat book on fighting council seats UKIP now cheekily out-performs it.

The results of the Clacton and Heywood and Middleton by-elections could be embarrassing for the main parties. 

If the UKIP vote in Clacton is twice as large as that for the Conservatives then the outcome in Rochester and Strood might be a second defeat for Cameron. 

If Labour fails to improve its position in Heywood then disaffection with the Miliband leadership will doubtless grow. 

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1. Gallery: Heywood and Clacton By-Elections

   Watch a by-election special on Sky News from 10pm on Thursday

2. List of candidates for the Heywood and Middleton by-election

3. List of candidates for the Clacton by-election

The Liberal Democrat candidates could lose their deposits in both elections, further undermining the party's future credentials as a viable coalition partner after the next election.

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